Econometric Semiconductor Industry Forecast

Groundbreaking econometric forecast provides accurate semiconductor industry forecasts every month

The Econometric Semiconductor Forecast is the first semiconductor industry forecasting service to use rigorous state of the art global GDP macroeconomic models to provide forecasts at a quarterly frequency with monthly updates, allowing forecast recipients to plan for short-term fluctuations in the volatile semiconductor industry.

Forecasting Semiconductors: A Demand-Driven Approach

The Econometric Semiconductor Forecasting Service uses a proven macroeconomic forecasting tool that incorporates measures of economic uncertainty, global economic shocks, and regional volatility to develop a Silicon area forecast for the global semiconductor industry. 

The Econometric Semiconductor Forecast provides subscribers with monthly updates of quarterly forecasts of total semiconductor production in Million Square Inches(MSI) of silicon processed.

The Econometric Semiconductor Forecast is based on an advanced econometric forecasting model developed by Duncan Meldrum, business economist and founder of Hilltop Economics, in conjunction with Linx Consulting.  The model is based on a demand-driven equation that captures >98% of the long run variation in semiconductors and includes:

  • Global real GDP growth (from consensus forecasts)
  • US consumer and business spending on technology goods
  • Inventory-shipments ratio, computer & electronics
  • Financial crisis shock indicator to capture panic behavior in latest cycle

Learn more about Econometric Semiconductor Industry Forecast

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  • Forecast Reporting Schedule

    The Econometric Semiconductor Forecast Service has two key deliverables released on a periodic basis:

    • Quarterly Forecasts — 4 times per year (in February, May, August, November) with corresponding webinars
    • Monthly Updates — 8 times per year in the remaining months

    Publishing Schedule

    Output Release date
    January monthly update 4th week of January
    February monthly Update 4th week of February
    1Q Quarterly Forecast (webinar included) 1st week of March
    March Monthly Update 4th week of march
    April Monthly Update 4th week of April
    2Q Quarterly Forecast (webinar included) 4th week of May
    June Monthly Update 4th week of June
    July Monthly Update 4th week of July
    3Q Quarterly Forecast (webinar included) 4th week of August
    September 4th week of September
    October 4th week of October
    4Q Quarterly Forecast (webinar included) 4th week of November
    December 4th week of December